Tatiana Yugay

10/02/2016

Italian thinker Giancarlo Valori says turning away from the USA is the only way Europe can insure its social and economic survival

Pope Paul VI and G.E. Valori

Pope Paul VI and G.E. Valori

Last week The Russia Insider published two articles by Giancarlo Elia Valori – Despite Territorial Loses, the ISIS Global Position Is Secure and Russia Will Win Middle East, While West Goes Soft. The readers had, certainly, noticed that it’s a rather new narrative about ISIS and Russia’s role in the Middle East.

In the foreword to the first article, I indicated only the academic side of Valori’s life. I did it intentionally in order to keep the readership intrigued. Now, it’s time to reveal other sides of his multilateral and sometimes obscure activities.

Industrialist. During his long career he held numerous high positions in prestigious Italian and foreign companies. He currently chairs “La Centrale Finanziaria Generale SpA”, the Laboratory Foundation for Public Administration and the Italian delegation of the Abertis Foundation. He is also the honorary president of Huawei Italy, economic adviser to the Chinese giant HNA Group. This impressive list of his positions in the industrial sector is far from complete.

Catholic mason (catto-massone).

He had got an honorary membersip at the Papal Court as Cameriere segreto di cappa e spada (secret chamberlain of cloak-and-dagger) when he was only 23 years old. He was a member of the Masonic Lodge of Gian Domenico Romagnosi and the Lodge P2 (Propaganda Due) but was expelled from both of them. However, according to Luigi De Magistris, a well-known Italian politician and former magistrate,

“Giancarlo Elia Valori seems to be one of the current leaders of the contemporary Freemasonry.”

Notably, Valori published in 2011 the book “Il Risorgimento oltre la storia” (Italian unification beyond history), dedicated to the 150th anniversary of unification of Italy.  According to Giordano Brunettin,

“Valori disrupts traditional prudence and concealment, always practiced by historical  and nonfiction literature about the Freemasonry, and openly claims the Masonic leading role in the  Italian unification  movement since its origins, but also in the entire process of modernization…”

Mediator in talks and friend of modern dictators

In 1965, at age of 25, Valori entered RAI,  Italy’s national public broadcasting company. Being in charge of international relations, he, particularly, specialized on dictators: Kim Il Sung in North Korea, Nicolae Ceausescu in Romania, communist leaders of China. He was in good relations both with Arturo Frondizi Ercoli, democratic president of  Argentine, and former dictator Juan Domingo Peron.

Thanks  to his network of international contacts,  Valori contributed decisively to the liberation of three French hostages kidnapped in 1985 in Iran by Islamic extremists and released in 1988. It is worth mentioning that he had done that in a very original manner. He took advantage of his close friendship with Kim Il Sung, and asked him to convince the religious leaders in Tehran to exert their influence on the kidnappers in order to release the hostages. When, years later his role in the affair came to light, French President François Mitterrand appointed him as the Knight of the Legion of Honor.

Mediterranean middleman

Valori has friendly relations with the Israeli establishment, particularly, with Shimon Peres. He worked in Libya, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, where he participated in the construction of the strategic Karakaya Dam which gives Turkey the tap that controls Syria and Iraq.

Geopolitical thinker

From this brief summary of Valori’s work record, we can conclude that his vast and profound knowledge of geopolitical trends of our time have been the result of creative comprehension of his lifelong experience. The main themes of his recent works are oil as the new geopolitics of power, geo-economic collapse of the West, tactics and strategy in the Greater Middle East.  Noteworthy,  Valori hasn’t ever been a Russophile and we’ll hardly find an article dedicated to Russia among his numerous publications. He is looking at Russia through the Mediterranean lens and evaluates Russia’s changing political role in the region.

Tactics and strategy in the Greater Middle East

In his blog  “Osservatorio Globale”, Valori develops 9 theses on the new geopolitics of the region, which serves as a connecting link between the Western world and the reborn Central Asia. In his view, the central point is a struggle for Islamic hegemony between Iran, the leader of the Shiites, and Saudi Arabia, Sunni reference, for the domination over the entire Greater Middle East and the southern and eastern Mediterranean. To counter the Islamic threat, Russia, China and India will be forced to draw closer and will work to create the new Silk Road. The US will negotiate a new special relationship with those who win the game of Islam in the Greater Middle East, like the one that Kissinger negotiated with the Saudis at the end of the Yom Kippur War.  He concludes that

“the only credible threat to the new Caliphate, block and “plug” for the Eurasian peninsula, will come from the North West, with the Russian-Caucasian axis, and from the southern seas, with the Chinese-Indian axis, that will serve as maritime and terrestrial containment for the Islamist area”.

Collapse of the West and the EU

Valori points out that

“the  geoeconomic collapse of the West is so rapid that any global strategic choice should conform to the need for political and economic survival of our social systems”. The USA have been leaving Europe in the framework of “repositioning Washington’s forces between the Greater Middle East and the Russian Federation”.

In his article “The Eurasian  Project”  Valori states,

“We, Europeans, are, in the meantime, in a strategic context that we can not control, command and sometimes not even understand. Europe does not count anymore… We do not know how to defend ourselves, for a long time.”

In this grave geopolitical situation,  Valori proposes a new agenda for Europe:

1) Meditate with the Russian Federation, China, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization upon a regional defense system and economic and financial exchange. 2) Rethink the EU strategy for the Mediterranean, which is not only a regional sea where you collect refugees but the great hub of the next century. 3) Revise a treaty with the Russian Federation and China that stabilize Africa and countries in jihad risks. 4) Restructure the NATO, with a strategic thinking that finally goes beyond the old memory of the Cold War. 5) Reconstruct relationship with Beijing  that will allow China to exit from its geographical bottleneck in the central Heartland.   6) Maybe, rethink the impossible – a new role of the euro as a global money.

Geopolitics of oil 

In the aftermath of lifting sanctions from Iran, Valori reflects on it’s consequences in the article

“The Iran-Syria-Saudi Arabia triangle”. He writes the Saudis game of lowering prices  creates

“a perfect geopolitical storm: the greater is the fall in prices, or too insignificant compared to the costs (which is the real problem) the greater will be the internal competition among producers”.

“If the Saudis maintain the low price to expand their market share, at the extent of profitability, it is highly probable that they want the direct confrontation with the Iranians. According to analysts of many Western merchant banks, the scenario of a full-scale war between Iran and Saudi Arabia could lead to an immediate peak of 300 US dollars/barrel, before stabilizing around 100 dollars, or the Saudi production profitability thresholds. The Iranians,  have a higher profitability point than Riyadh. And so we can assess the duration and the winner of the clash.”

“It’s ‘a struggle for the hegemony based on oil, through which will be controlled the world and the Western economies, and nothing is forbidden unless careful Russian mediation and the policy of equilibrium between the Chinese parties will provide, that the worst would not happen”.

In his book “Il Futuro è già qui”  (The future is already here) Valori outlines a number of scenarios in which participate two sets of actors, supporting actors on the one hand, and decision-makers on the other. In the interview with Marcello Lopez , he explains that decision-makers comprise multinational companies, major research centers which are universally recognized, certain mass-media, some ecological pressure groups, foundations of large industrial groups or consulting firms in the oil sector, and also opinion leaders of young masses of people, and “icons” of pop culture.

Following  Valori’s own logic, we can, certainly, define him as a decision-maker of a new type who always acted behind the curtains. Formerly, as a mediator in the talks and recently as an opinion maker. It’s clear that his articles in the Russia Insider is a message to Russia and pro-Russian forces from the circles which Giancarlo Elia Valori has been representing during his long political and aconomic activity – industrial sector, academic science and Catholic masonry.

I can sum his  appeal in one short phrase: The twilight West is looking with hope to Russia and is ready to cooperate in order to stabilize the Greater Middle East. It’s an interesting coincidence that after meeting Vladimir Putin, Henry A. Kissinger has published a vast article on the US-Russian relations with a message “Russia should be perceived as an essential element of any new global equilibrium”.

 

Tatiana Yugay is Professor of the Plekhanov Russian Economic University, an expert on Italy and a former advisor to the President’s Administration and Security Council of the Russian Federation. 

She wrote this article especially for RI

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