Mês: junho 2019

Bill Bonner’s Ratio

Introducing the Greed/Fear Ratio…   Van Bryan Jun. 9, 2019   A tide is turning… That was the central theme of Bill’s Diary essays this week. The prevailing tide of greed… of phony booms… “unicorn” IPOs… and record-high stock prices is going out. In its place, a tide of fear. On Monday, Bill showed the evidence. Our editor unveiled the “Greed/Fear Ratio.” The ratio goes up when greed’s in charge. It falls when fear takes hold. And if our editor is right, the most important ratio in all of investing is going down… down…down. The Most Important Ratio in All of Investing On Monday, Bill unveils the “most important ratio in all of investing.” It measures the exuberance of greed… and compares it to the sinking feeling of fear. As Bill puts it, the Greed/Fear ratio can tell you when to buy stocks, when to sell, and when to take cover… Stocks Have a Rendezvous With Destiny Stocks are jittery on Tuesday. “Trade war fears,” declares the mainstream financial press. But rather than worry about the day-to-day, Bill takes the long view. According to his “Greed/Fear ratio,” the market has a rendezvous with destiny, somewhere near the bottom right of a stock chart… What Comes From Disrespecting Mr. Market On Wednesday, “good news” from the Fed. America’s central bank is still “data dependent.” The Powell Put lives on, in...

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USAmerica and China

Washington is wrong about China’s economy   David P. Goldman May 30, 2019   Americans want to believe that their economy is doing well and that China’s economy is doing badly, as President Trump keeps saying. One shouldn’t blame Trump for this – underestimating competitors is America’s national pastime. A recent embarrassing example was a report by Wells Fargo analyst Roger Read featured on CNBC, claiming that a fall in the growth rate in China’s diesel consumption “is most likely tied to economic factors and the effects of the tariff ‘war’ with the US.” As physicist Wolfgang Pauli once said, this isn’t even wrong. The fellow from Wells Fargo failed to observe that China’s rail traffic is growing 10%, year-on-year, which is also the rate of expansion of China’s rail network. The more China ships by rail, the less dependent it is on diesel trucks. The relationship is robust statistically (I’ll spare you the econometrics, which show that lagged values for changes in diesel demand predict changes in rail traffic). The analyst also failed to observe that heavy truck sales reached an all-time record in March 2019, driven by vehicles powered by natural gas. China’s economy is becoming more efficient, shifting away from costly (and polluting) diesel fuel to more energy-efficient and cleaner railways and natural-gas-powered trucks. The notion that the tariff war might have caused diesel demand to...

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Bill Bonner’s Week

From Pollination to Predation   Van Bryan Jun 2. 2019   Do you feel that, Dear Reader? Something has changed. Free trade has been replaced with tariffs. Modest republics traded for protectionist governments. Win-win abandoned for win-lose. These are not isolated incidents. As a dear reader put it, it is a shift from “pollination to predation.” All week, Bill connected the dots of this new zeitgeist, and showed what will come of it… Raise a Glass of the Highest Pure Wine in the World On Monday, news from the ranch. Bill’s Tacana Malbec wine has been bottled and is ready for shipment. And Tacana isn’t your typical grocery store wine. The secret can be found high in the Andes Mountains… Have We Passed “Peak Prosperity”? Americans are an optimistic bunch. They have been taught to believe that life will always get better. Our grandchildren will be stronger… wiser… and richer. But on Tuesday, Bill takes a hard look at the state of America and has to wonder: What if “peak prosperity” is in the rear view? Win-Lose World On Wednesday, Bill puts the state of the world under a microscope. He sees tariffs… protectionist governments… zany plans like “Modern Monetary Theory.” These are not isolated incidents. The zeitgeist has shifted. It’s a win-lose world now. The Tide of Fear Is Approaching Like the tides, history ebbs and flows over...

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SI

Situação Internacional   João da Silveira     Seg. 27 HUAWEI : A FALA MANSA DE REN ZHENGFEI : A China vai celebrar o êxito dos Estados Unidos na quinta geração (5G) do setor de telecomunicações e não vai deixar de competir também, num show de camaradagem e fair play. (Jeff Pao). A China de Zhengfei em ascensão pode se dar a esse luxo….   USAMÉRICA : A GRANDE MENTIRA DO COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS : A China usa de ferramentas geoestratégicas para coagir os países vizinhos e não vizinhos; a China viola práticas comerciais internacionais com roubo constante (maciço) da propriedade intelectual dos Estados Unidos; manipula a moeda para obter ganhos comerciais; ameaça Formosa; constrói suas forças militares para afastar os Estados Unidos do Japão e das Filipinas; constrói e militariza ilhas artificiais no Mar do Sul da China em violação do direito internacional; tudo fazendo paciente e metodicamente para desafiar os Estados Unidos como poder principal na Ásia. (Dennis Etler)….   CHINA : DESBANCANDO MITOS SOBRE A ECONOMIA CHINESA : Muito do que se diz sobre a China é sabedoria convencional, mas a China nem sempre cabe na sabedoria convencional. Exemplos de descabimentos abundam. (Yukon Huang com N. Bruce Pickering, Dec. 1, 2017)… Enquanto isso, trocam-se coices na guerra comercial. (Yukon Huang com Markos Kounalakis, Dec. 4, 2018). Oh, isso é divertido!…   MARXISMO CULTURAL : DESBANCANDO JORDAN PETERSON : Peterson nunca leu...

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