Mês: setembro 2018

Putin’s Grand Strategy

Grand Strategy Revisited   Andrei Martyanov Aug. 24, 2018   We live in the world of models, all kinds of them. Some models are simple, others—very complex. The main task of those models is to predict how things, those models describe, will behave depending on the circumstances. Some of those models work brilliantly, others fail miserably. Worst models in terms of reliability are those dealing with geopolitics. A record of dismal failures of Western in general, and American in particular, geopolitical models to predict anything right is widely available for everyone to see. Time after time those models and predictions turned out to be wrong. In terms of “predicting” anything in regards to Russia, those predictions were not only wrong, they were downright dangerous. No better demonstration exists of a complete breakdown in the process of predicting anything than evolution of Russian military and economic power. As late as 2016, claims that Russia remained nothing more than, in the words of John McCain, a gas station masquerading as a country continued to pour in by all kinds of “experts”, who, despite a huge collection of facts to the contrary, continued to believe that these are only Russia’s nuclear forces which keep Russia as some secondary factor in the international relations. There are even some Russian experts who shared this point of view. Their models and predictions turned out to...

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SI

Situação Internacional   João da Silveira   Seg. 3 – R.I.P. McCAIN : HERÓI AMERICANO : Spengler diz que serviços funerários são para o benefício dos vivos. Não são para benefício do morto. Requiescat in paceo morto em latim; Rest in peaceo defunto em inglês, mantidas as iniciais; descanse em paz o corpo, em português e outras iniciais, D.E.P! É isso aí. O funeral de John McCain foi o mais ostentoso que o establishment imperial americano já fez para um que nunca foi imperador. Foi mais ostentoso até que o de Gerald Ford, o vice-presidente que assumiu o Império quando sucedeu a Richard Nixon. Portanto, o funeral de McCain foi, sim, em benefício do establishment, que está, curiosamente e segundo Spengler, a um passo de seu próprio R.I.P. ou D.E.P. Henry Kissinger esteve lá e discursou. Donald Trump não esteve lá. O destino do establishment está agora nas mãos de Trump, sobre quem Kissinger falou assim em julho: “Eu acho que Trump pode ser uma daquelas figuras históricas que aparecem de tempos em tempos para marcar o fim de uma era e forçar o abandono de velhas pretensões. Não quer dizer necessariamente que ele saiba disso ou que esteja considerando alguma grande alternativa. Pode ser só um acidente.” Que pretensões? Pretensões imperiais? Pode ser? Ou será que Trump é que está nas mãos do establishment? Também pode ser. . . O SALÁRIO...

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McCain’s Funeral

A funeral for a world that never was   Spengler Sep. 3, 2018   Funeral services are not for the benefit of the defunct, who is beyond our praise or condemnation, but for the living, who know before long that they will follow the honored dead into a cold grave. Senator John McCain’s funeral was the most ostentatious that Washington has accorded except for a president, and much grander than the 2006 funeral of Gerald Ford, for example. The American Establishment took the opportunity to mourn a world that it imagined but never inhabited. The obloquies for the Arizona senator, to be sure, were a convenient occasion for the Establishment to show its dudgeon at “the pointedly un-invited President Trump,” as the New Yorker noted, calling the event “the biggest resistance meeting yet.” McCain’s daughter Meghan contrasted what she called her father’s “real greatness” with the “cheap rhetoric from men who will never come near the sacrifice,” a reference to Trump. Politics, though, were less important than the American elite’s collective exercise in self-consolation after the catastrophic failure of its policies and its repudiation by the voters in the 2016 election. Senator McCain served his country and suffered on its behalf as a prisoner of war, and deserves respect on the occasion of his passing. But the unctuous sea of self-congratulatory declarations of virtue embedded in his obsequies were...

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Putin’s Trap

Grandmaster Putin   Oriental Review Dec. 25, 2014   Accusations of the West towards Putin are traditionally based on the fact that he worked in the KGB. And therefore he is a cruel and immoral person. Putin is blamed for everything. But nobody ever accused Putin of the lack of intelligence. Any accusations against this man only emphasize his ability for quick analytical thinking and making clear and balanced political and economic decisions. Often Western media compares this ability with the ability of a grandmaster, conducting a public chess simul. Recent developments in US economy and the West in general allow us to conclude that in this part of the assessment of Putin’s personality Western media are absolutely right. Despite numerous success reports in the style of Fox News and CNN, today, Western economy, led by the United States is in Putin’s trap, the way out of which no one in the West can see or find. And the more the West is trying to escape from this trap, the more stuck it becomes. What is the truly tragic predicament of the West and the United States, in which they find themselves? And why all the Western media and leading Western economists are silent about this, as a well guarded military secret? Let’s try to understand the essence of current economic events, in the context of the economy, setting aside the factors of morality, ethics and geopolitics. Development of crude oil prices. After...

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