Mês: maio 2018

Trade War

Trade war in Navarro-Navarro Land   There will be no clear winner or loser and at best it will be a split decision with some avoidable collateral damage along the way David P. Goldman May 8, 2018   China sells low-end products to the United States and the US sells high-end products to China, directly as in the case of passenger aircraft and indirectly in the form of royalties for semiconductor and other designs paid to American companies by third-party suppliers. If the two countries erect tariff barriers, China will shift resources to make its own high-end products and the US will either consume less, or source the same products from China’s economic satellites or, worst of all, manufacture low-end products at home. That is the paradox of Peter Navarro, President Trump’s trade adviser and the most implacable advocate of tariff barriers against Chinese goods. But things in Navarro-Navarro land don’t always work out as planned. In the case of a tariff war, China will suffer a drop in output in low-skilled industries, for example smartphone assembly, and Boeing will lose the aircraft market to Airbus. This is clear from an industry breakdown of China-US trade. In Beijing last week, the US economic team demanded that China cut its $375 billion trade surplus with the United States by more than half by 2020 and stop subsidizing high-value-added industries. The...

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Don’t Fear the New Nationalism   The utopian belief in a globalized world without borders is dying in the West.   Anatol Lieven Jun. 25, 2017   MARRIAGE BETWEEN the Economist and the New Left Review may seem like one of Hieronymus Bosch’s stranger copulations. Liberal capitalists and Marxists have been drawn passionately together over the past few decades in one area: their common utopian belief in the development of a globalized world without nationalism and national borders, a dream now dying in the West. Elsewhere, it never really took root beyond sections of the Western-influenced (and often Western-subsidized) intelligentsia. Nationalism has frequently been described as a form of religion, and as the social scientist Liah Greenfeld writes, Like the great religions of the past, nationalism today forms the foundation of our social consciousness, the cognitive framework of our perception of reality. Seen against the record of the great religions’ historical longevity and continuous vitality over centuries of political, economic and technological change, the recognition of this functional equivalence may give us a more accurate idea of nationalism’s projected life span and pace of development. The strongest states in Asia today are those with strong nationalisms, which are central to the legitimacy not only of the present regimes but of the states themselves. The development of strong senses of national identity is not only a regime strategy; it also...

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Emmanuel Macron’s Speech to the Joint Session of Congress, 25 April 2018   Gilbert Doctorow Apr. 30, 2018   In this essay, I offer a detailed textual analysis of the speech which French President Emmanuel Macron delivered before the Joint Session of Congress, Washington, D.C. on 25 April 2018.  In line with the kind of textual analysis which I performed on major political documents signed by heroic East European freedom fighters in 2007 and 2009, which were in fact authored by US intelligence operatives, I maintain here that a substantial part of Macron’s speech was either written by or coordinated closely with these same intelligence services for the purpose of exerting maximum influence on domestic US politics by reinforcement of centrist American predispositions from respected foreign actors. However, in the given instance, it is also essential to explain how M. Macron became president of France in 2017 with the connivance of these same intelligence services. I will attempt to do that in the second part of the essay. I freely admit that my argumentation is circumstantial and relies heavily on hunches that today are sagely phrased as “most likely” scenarios. But whereas the “most likely” reasoning of Theresa May is used to justify unprecedented verbal attacks on Russia and military attacks on the sovereign state of Syria, my reasoning, if unpersuasive, has no other consequence than to lose a...

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