Mês: julho 2017

Russian Economy

WHAT DOES NOT KILL YOU WILL MAKE YOU STRONGER THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY 2014 – 2016, THE YEARS OF SANCTIONS WARFARE   Jon Hellevig June 29, 2017   This report is based on Awara Accounting’s research on how the Russian economy managed in 2014 – 2016 to cope with the dual shocks of Western sanctions and the accompanying precipitous fall of the oil price. KEY FINDINGS: Russia’s economy has successfully adjusted to dual shock of sanctions and oil price plunge Minor GDP loss of -2.3% for 3 years of sanctions will be completely recovered in 2017 with expected 2-3% growth Oil & gas share of GDP drops to below 10% Industrial production stable 2014-2016, soars in May by +5.3% Russia’s economy now the most diversified in the world. Exports remain relatively undiversified, but domestic production highly diversified and self-sufficient Debt Crisis predicted by Western pundits failed to materialize CB reserves intact and sovereign wealth funds solid Budget deficit never went below -3.9%. Tax collection soars in 2017, budget now balanced Oil & gas only 17% of budget revenue (2016) Inflation falls to near 4% Unemployment remains low at 5% level Demographic indicators reach all-time best Population at 146.8 million – all-time high Only clearly negative data: Salaries, disposable income and consumption. Retail sales down more than 10% OUR FINDINGS No, the Russian economy is not in tatters as the former...

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Russian Economy

Diversification, Modernization and the Role of the State in Russia’s Economy   Jon Hellevig Dec. 09, 2014   A Wittgensteinian look at the Russian economy Summary of facts on Russia’s economic development 2000 ‐ 2013 “The results of philosophy are the uncovering of one or another piece of plain nonsense and bumps that the understanding has got by running its head against the limits of language.” — Wittgenstein   1. The share of natural resources rents in GDP (oil, gas, coal, mineral, and forest rents) more than halved between 2000 to 2012 from 44,5% to 18.7%. The actual share of oil and gas was 16%.   2. Russian industrial production has grown more than 50% while being totally modernized at the same time   3. Production of food has grown by 100%.   4. Production of cars has more than doubled at the same time when all the production has been totally remodeled.   5. Russian exports have grown fivefold. 6. Growth of exports of non‐oil & gas goods has been 250%.   7. Russia’s export growth has been more than doubled compared with the competng Western powers. 8. Oil & gas does not count for over 50% of state revenues as it has been claimed, but only 27.4%. Top revenue bringer is instead payroll taxes.   9. Russia’s total tax rate at 29.5% is among lowest of developed countries, non-oil & gas total tax rate is...

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Vladimir Putin

Russia at the Turn of the Millennium   Vladimir Putin Dec. 30, 1999   The humankind lives under the sign of two signal events: the new millennium and the 2000th anniversary of Christianity. I think the general interest for and attention to these two events mean something more than just the tradition to celebrate red-letter dates. New Possibilities, New Problems It may be a coincidence – but then, it may be not – that the beginning of the new millennium coincided with a dramatic turn in world developments in the past 20-30 years. I mean the deep and quick changes in the life of humankind connected with the development of what we call the post-industrial society. Here are its main features. * Changes in the economic structure of society, with the diminishing weight of material production and the growing share of secondary and tertiary sectors. * The consistent renewal and quick introduction of novel technologies and the growing output of science-intensive commodities. * The landslide development of the information science and telecommunications. * Priority attention to management and the improvement of the system of organization and guidance of all spheres of human endeavor. * And lastly, human leadership. It is man and high standards of his education, professional training, business and social activity that are becoming the guiding force of progress today. The development of a new type of...

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ME = MS

MS Research Australia’s CEO celebrates role of new technologies in transforming the lives of people affected by MS   26th June 2017 Chief Executive of MS Research Australia, Matthew Miles, highlighted the potential of new and emerging technologies to help people affected by MS at a recent Harvard and Stamford University panel. Mr Miles shone a light on how many different kinds of technology are transforming scientific research, the diagnosis and treatment of MS, and facilitating new approaches to global fundraising by bringing information to people’s hand-held devices. Virtual communities Drawing attention to the successes of the “Kiss Goodbye to MS” campaign and the growth of the International Progressive MS Alliance, Mr Miles emphasised the power of “virtual communities” of researchers and people affected by MS to break down geographical barriers and unite people around the world around a common cause: finding solutions for people with MS. Examples included the role of open-source technology – software that is freely available for anyone to view, edit, and redistribute – in revolutionising the way scientists and researchers worldwide can share information and updates about MS. Health & lifestyle Mr Miles also highlighted the positive impact of lifestyle-monitoring apps that measure diet and exercise, along with exercise-based games such as the Nintendo Wii, on the physical health of people with MS. Looking ahead, Mr Miles touched upon exciting new technologies on the...

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Russia and Turkey

Russia enters NATO’s bedroom   M. K. Bhadrakumar Jul. 01, 2017   Can we say a “terrible beauty” is born in the NATO’s underbelly — to borrow the words from the Irish-English poet Y. B. Yeats?  Moscow disclosed on Thursday that Russia’s contract with Turkey on the delivery of S-400 long-range air defense missile systems has been finalized. The Russian Presidential Adviser for Military and Technical Cooperation Vladimir Kozhin said, “The contract has been agreed and everything is understandable there but the issue of a loan, funds has not been settled yet.” (TASS) The Russian press reported that Turkey has sought a loan to finance the purchase and Moscow is actively considering the proposal. Within hours of the “breaking news”, US President Donald Trump was on the line, phoning up Turkish President Recep Erdogan. The White House readout said that Trump discussed “numerous subjects” with Erdogan, including ways to resolve the rift between Qatar and Saudi Arabia while “ensuring that all countries work to stop terrorist funding and to combat extremist ideology”. It said Trump emphasised “the importance of all our allies and partners increasing their efforts to fight terrorism and extremism in all its forms.” The US’ Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIS, Brett McGurk also landed in Ankara. Turkey has threatened to go after the Syrian Kurds who are aligned with US in northern Syria. Interestingly, no sooner...

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