Autor: João

The Brazilian Economy

Irredeemable? A former star of the emerging world faces a lost decade The Economist Jan. 02,2016 THE longest recession in a century; the biggest bribery scandal in history; the most unpopular leader in living memory. These are not the sort of records Brazil was hoping to set in 2016, the year in which Rio de Janeiro hosts South America’s first-ever Olympic games. When the games were awarded to Brazil in 2009 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, then president and in his pomp, pointed proudly to the ease with which a booming Brazil had weathered the global financial crisis. Now Lula’s handpicked successor, Dilma Rousseff, who began her second term in January 2015, presides over an unprecedented roster of calamities. By the end of 2016 Brazil’s economy may be 8% smaller than it was in the first quarter of 2014, when it last saw growth; GDP per person could be down by a fifth since its peak in 2010, which is not as bad as the situation in Greece, but not far off. Two ratings agencies have demoted Brazilian debt to junk status. Joaquim Levy, who was appointed as finance minister last January with a mandate to cut the deficit, quit in December. Any country where it is hard to tell the difference between the inflation rate—which has edged into double digits—and the president’s approval rating—currently 12%, having dipped into...

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PMDB, PT & PSDB

  Caro Senador, Ainda no ano de 1998, o PT ultrapassou o PMDB na preferência partidária dos eleitores, segundo mostra série histórica do Instituto Datafolha.   De 1998 a 2007, o PMDB ficou em segundo lugar na identificação dos eleitores. De 2007 a 2014, o PMDB, em declínio paulatino, empatou tecnicamente com o PSDB nas preferências. A partir de 2013, o PT cai precipitadamente na preferência dos eleitores, enquanto o PSDB sobe ligeiramente e tende a assumir a liderança, ainda que no modesto patamar em torno de 9 a 10%. Quatro aspectos pedem atenção nesse gráfico. O primeiro é...

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PMDB

  Caro Senador, Em 1998, Itamar Franco pretendeu ser candidato à presidência da República pelo PMDB. Fernando Henrique não queria que Itamar fosse candidato. FHC queria que seu adversário fosse mais uma vez Lula. A convenção do dia 08 de março foi convocada para decidir se o partido teria ou não candidato próprio. Dois governadores do PMDB, Joaquim Roriz do Distrito Federal e Iris Rezende de Goiás, enviaram à convenção 250 militantes, uniformizados com camisetas amarelas, alguns portando correntes e outros com soco-inglês. Esses militantes tomaram o auditório da convenção na Câmara dos Deputados e partiram para cima dos que queriam candidatura própria, contrários à reeleição de FHC, ferindo alguns deles. O tumulto impediu que Itamar falasse aos convencionais. Apurados os votos, o apoio à reeleição de FHC venceu por 389 votos a 306. Derrotado Itamar na convenção do PMDB, FHC venceu Lula galhardamente já no primeiro turno da eleição. Abr.,...

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The Brazilian Economy

Disaster looms for Latin America’s biggest economy Jan 2nd 2016   AT THE start of 2016 Brazil should be in an exuberant mood. Rio de Janeiro is to host South America’s first Olympic games in August, giving Brazilians a chance to embark on what they do best: throwing a really spectacular party. Instead, Brazil faces political and economic disaster. On December 16th Fitch became the second of the three big credit-rating agencies to downgrade Brazil’s debt to junk status. Days later Joaquim Levy, the finance minister appointed by the president, Dilma Rousseff, to stabilise the public finances, quit in despair after less than a year in the job. Brazil’s economy is predicted to shrink by 2.5-3% in 2016, not much less than it did in 2015. Even oil-rich, sanction-racked Russia stands to do better. At the same time, Brazil’s governing coalition has been discredited by a gargantuan bribery scandal surrounding Petrobras, a state-controlled oil company. And Ms Rousseff, accused of hiding the size of the budget deficit, faces impeachment proceedings in Congress. As the B in BRICS, Brazil is supposed to be in the vanguard of fast-growing emerging economies. Instead it faces political dysfunction and perhaps a return to rampant inflation. Only hard choices can put Brazil back on course. Just now, Ms Rousseff does not seem to have the stomach for them. Dismal Dilma Brazil’s suffering, like that...

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